This paper presents a structural analysis of the Spanish imports and exports of goods, dissaggregated into manufactured, primary and energy products. Special attention is given to the main shocks suffered by the Spanish economy since 1986. We find that entry into the then EEC favoured imports and prejudiced exports in the case of manufactured goods, with the opposite being the case with respect to primary products, whose imports were subsequently favoured by the creation of the Single Market. Finally, we have simulated the future trajectories for primary and manufactured goods. Our results show that the former have a tendency towards an increasing deficit, whilst the latter reveal a progressive reduction of the negative balance of trade.

Key words: imports, exports, cointegration, European Union.
JEL classification: C22, F14.